Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season/August
August What's been missed So, since the last time anyone posted here there's been Dolores, Lana, Enrique, and Felicia... the last of which is still puttering on, headed towards Hawaii. --Patteroast 17:01, 9 August 2009 (UTC) :So, Guillermo has formed and is near hurricane strength... headed generally towards Hawaii, but forecast to weaken first. Felicia died before hitting Hawaii and its remnants ended up giving a bit of rain to the islands... Maka formed and abruptly died, although there's still some remnant convection near the date line... and TD9E formed, lingered quite a while, and lost integrity, but NHC's got its remnants at medium chance for redevelopment, which if it does happen looks like it could be in the CPac, giving us a third CPac-named storm this year. At least there's something to watch while the Atlantic continues to be boring! --Patteroast 19:07, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::Guillermo's a hurricane, the remains of TD9E have a medium chance of redeveloping in CPac, and even Maka's remains are showing some signs of life, although they've left for the WPac. --Patteroast 15:32, 14 August 2009 (UTC) :::Guillermo's at 125 mph but forecast to weaken.--L.E./ 14:59, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Gone from NRL Tropical Storm Hilda Darn shear. Just when you have a tropical storm, shear leaves the system exposed. 18 more hours to live. Will it dissipate tomorrow or will it reorganize? :Too bad it didn't wait a little longer to form and give us another CPac name. Although there's another invest out there, now. --Patteroast 12:03, 23 August 2009 (UTC) ::Hilda seems to be getting healthier in the CPac... now forecast to become a hurricane somewhere south of Hawaii. --Patteroast 04:40, 25 August 2009 (UTC) * Will Hilda make it to the WestPac? (The 120 hours forecast as of now sees it as a 75 kn hurricane only 17 degrees away from the dateline.) And if so, would it get a name by the JMA or retain its NHC name? -- 10:16, 25 August 2009 (UTC) :If it did, it'd keep its name, like Maka did earlier in the season. However, it looks like Hilda's not going to survive that long... downgraded to a depression, no longer forecast to become a hurricane. --Patteroast 13:11, 27 August 2009 (UTC) 12E.Ignacio 93E Invest New invest in EPAC. Latest TWO says: A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Tropical Storm Ignacio Named, although first forecast after naming has it dissipating by the end of the forecast period. --Patteroast 04:38, 25 August 2009 (UTC) Aol:Midway between Ignacio and Hilda TWO says SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT A THOUSAND MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. Basins dead again The Basins are dying again. There is nothing in the Atlantic after Bill. WPAC has 9 named storms. NIO has been just as dead as the Atlantic. The only basin that is alive in the EPAC. It is on a REAL hot streak. All of the last ten invests developed. Would not be surprised if the EPAC becomes the most active basin this year. Are the wind shear and water temperature in the EPAC trying to do a Cinderella? :Actually, there's two invests in the Atlantic now, and WPac does have Typhoon Vamco stubbornly holding on as it's shooting straight at the Aleutians... the North Indian not having any activity's par for the course, there. I wouldn't say things are exactly dead right now. Not the most active, but not totally dead either. --Patteroast 04:44, 25 August 2009 (UTC) 13E.Jimena 94E.INVEST Formerly 93L, NHC has it at a medium chance of development. Models seem to think it'll hug the coast. --Patteroast 16:24, 28 August 2009 (UTC) :Whoa, both HWRF and GFDL make this a major hurricane, HWRF a category 4 making landfall in Sinaloa and GFDL a category 3 making landfall in Baja California Sur. NHC's got it at high risk, and is saying it could be a depression any time now. Definitely keeping an eye on this... --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 13E Advisories initiated. Forecast keeps it clear of Mexico, hope that proves to be true! --Patteroast 02:45, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Jimena Upgraded, and in the words of NHC 'rapidly intensifying'! Nearly a hurricane, forecast to be a major hurricane, and the forecast cone worryingly has Baja in its sights again... --Patteroast 14:46, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Jimena :Ahem. Excuse me, when I went to double check after posting, I noticed that Jimena's already been upgraded to hurricane. Yikes. --Patteroast 14:49, 29 August 2009 (UTC) ::Category 2,and the Forecast goes as high as 125-Kt winds!--L.E./ 01:00, 30 August 2009 (UTC) :::Category 4! And still going. Wow, what a storm! Jimena is stunning. Gorgeous symmetrical appearance, textbook pinhole eye and wicked cloud tops on the IR (though not as cold as I've seen, even recently). I think NHC's forecast peak of 125 knots may be conservative and I think meant to allow for the possibility of an eyewall cycle (which is almost customary of storms like this). I think the actual peak could easily end up being 130-135 knots. IMO, Category 5 is unlikely at this point but I wouldn't rule it out. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:27, 30 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Now at 125Kt(145 mph) with forecast peaking at 130Kt tomorrow.--L.E./ 02:55, 31 August 2009 (UTC) My God. Things have gone from bad to worse for Baja. NHC now puts it right offshore as a 140 mph Category 4. If the current forecast holds, I shudder to think what southern Baja is going to look like come Wednesday morning. This could be the worst hurricane Baja has ever seen. A 140 mph Category 4 doesn't leave much behind. Just ask the citizens of Galveston, Texas c.1900. Better pray for an eyewall cycle at about this time tomorrow. Those in Cabo need to start getting ready to leave right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:28, 31 August 2009 (UTC) :150mph at the intermediate advisory.Pressure down to 27.63inHg(936mb)...does that knock 940,sustained all day before,out of the Betting Pool?--L.E./ 20:17, 31 August 2009 (UTC) Latest in on Jimena, winds are 155 mph, pressure at 931 mbars. It is very close to cat 5 and it will probrably reach that strength by later today. 20:43, 31 August 2009 (UTC) :Advisory 13 is out,and the winds are at 155mph and pressure at 27.49inHg(931mb)...forecast now shows only weakening.--L.E./ 20:44, 31 August 2009 (UTC) ::Hopefully the worst of the storm will strike the less populated southwest coast and miss the resort areas around Cabo. I think we're looking at a 110-115 knot landfall at this point but the eastern eyewall could strike at 120 knots. As it will be on the east side of the storm, I have a hard time seeing the storm surge at Cabo as being anything but very bad. The tough part is that just a small shift to the west or east could make a big difference in the severity of the impact. The strongest landfall in Baja California history was 110-knot Hurricane Olivia in 1967, a really odd storm in that it first crossed the peninsula as a tropical storm but rapidly intensified in the Gulf of California and came back to strike a rural stretch of Baja's east coast. Norbert just last year was the strongest to strike the west coast of Baja at 90 knots. Jimena makes Norbert look like chicken sh!t. I sure hope people are getting the heck out of there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:56, 31 August 2009 (UTC) :::Advisory 14 reports wind and pressure unchanged since Advisory 13,but the watches have been extended north and east.How easy is it to evacuate a narrow,mountainous peninsula?--L.E./ 02:50, 1 September 2009 (UTC) ::::Track forecast has shifted a little bit west and that's good news Baja, especially Cabo, which looks like it's going to be spared. A forecast discussion last night mentioned that it's possible Jimena reached Category 5 strength briefly yesterday afternoon. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:36, September 1, 2009 (UTC) :::::Losing strength as well.But what about dumping those rains on the wildfires around Los Angeles?--L.E./ 04:40, September 2, 2009 (UTC) ::::::Not looking likely at this point. Most of the moisture is going to spend itself out over the mountains of northwest Mexico. Some of it may reach Arizona and New Mexico, but California and Nevada are unlikely to see much rain from Jimena. Jimena really hasn't slowed it's weakening trend since the start of the ERC, so that's great news for Baja. That said, I don't think I agree with NHC's more westward track forecast. From the satellite loops, it looks like Jimena is coming in right now. Looking at the four-hour loop, it appears to be headed straight for shore. It looks like the rural stretch of coastline between Isla Santa Margarita and Todos Santos is going to get the worst of the storm. The good news is, that there isn't a well-defined eyewall. The strongest bands should be coming onshore in about 2-3 hours. There are several poor, rural fishing villages that are going to be hit pretty hard by this though. I feel for those people and I hope they have some way to find safe shelter. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:59, September 2, 2009 (UTC) Jimena Inland Jimena is inland now according to CNN, 105 mph 970 mb. Pooff. 14E.Kevin 95E.INVEST Also at medium chance of development, models are making it look like Ignacio 2 at the moment. --Patteroast 16:24, 28 August 2009 (UTC) :High risk now, models still look like a short-lived fish storm, though. --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 14E Just upgraded. Forecast shows a storm slowly drifting to the north before dissipating. --Patteroast 14:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kevin It's got a name at the NHC now.--L.E/ 01:01, 30 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Kevin Compared to big sister Jimena,a 35mph wimp now!--L.E./ 20:18, 31 August 2009 (UTC) 2C.Two 95C.INVEST CPHC's got this at a high risk of development, although if it does it doesn't have much time left to be a CPac storm. C'mon, let's get some more Hawaiian names! Either way, it's headed across the date line soon. --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 2C Reached depression strength... forecast only makes it a storm before dissipating... and right on the date line, too! --Patteroast 05:12, 29 August 2009 (UTC) :Crossed the date line, but it's not forecast to become a storm anymore. --Patteroast 21:26, 30 August 2009 (UTC) Betting Pools are here Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season/Betting Pools CPac is super active this year It's not yet september and they have Carlos, Lana, Felicia, 9-E, Maka, Guillermo and Hilda that is seven storms. 19:57, 26 August 2009 (UTC) :EPac too... 8 TCs during August alone! And 3 TCs for CPac. I think I do agree with your statement. Storm's Eye 15:20, 29 August 2009 (UTC) ::Carlos and Nine-E actually dissipated in the Cpac and Lana, Maka, Two-C formed there, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda moved into there, thats a record. 19:32, 29 August 2009 (UTC) :::It's not a record. Welcome to El Nino years. In 1994, eight storms formed in or moved into CPac. They had three Category 5s form in CPac that year (Emilia, Gilma and John). And that's just one year. Some of the 1980s were crazy too. 1982 I believe holds the record in question with 10 storms forming in (3) or moving into (7) CPac. 1992 had seven. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:03, 30 August 2009 (UTC) ::::9 storms before September? 19:29, 30 August 2009 (UTC) :::::Just felt like mentioning that technically, Lana moved into the CPac, as it formed as a depression 6E barely in the EPac. However, it crossed into the CPac before strengthening to a storm. This has happened before a few times. (Ex: Iniki) This is why even though it was the second CPac-named storm, Maka was TD 1C, followed by 2C later. --Patteroast 00:35, 31 August 2009 (UTC) ::::::2009 EPac has had 11 named storms before the end of August. 1992 had 14. Active? Yes. Historic? No. However, it is notable in that 2009 saw the latest start to an East Pacific season in 40 years! 1992 started June 1 with TS Agatha. All eleven storms have formed in a 10-week period which is pretty remarkable. We've had eight storms in August alone, which appears to be a monthly record for the Eastern Pacific (combined with CPac). I've been researching as I was typing this and August, 2009 appears to have set a monthly record for the North Pacific east of the dateline. Wow! I did not expect that. It broke a 3-way tie at seven (August, 1974; July, 1985; August, 2006). The seven in EPac (excluding Maka), ties the record set in 1985. That is remarkable! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 04:21, 31 August 2009 (UTC) Sky, another unique feature is the eastern and western pacific basins are equal in activity so far this year. Every basin other than the East Pacific is dead, pretty much, and I never saw this happen before. I mean, if this keeps up, the East Pacific might be the most active basin worldwide this year, beating the West Pacific. 20:50, 31 August 2009 (UTC)